『台對中經貿投資政策並不是獨立的議題，它的運作必須定位在配合或服務建構台灣成為創新導向經濟的策略目的。』 爭議不斷的台灣經濟永續發展會議終於在上週七月二十八日晚間閉幕，行政院副院長蔡英文隨後於閉幕記者會表示：「兩岸經貿風險管理不是開放與緊縮的問題，而是如何建立有效掌握並處理風險機制。」 若 沉靜審視蔡副院長這段會後說明，似乎隱涵只要風險能獲有效管控，應該可以進一步開放投資中國。蔡英文顯然並沒有真正多角度照視台、中經貿關係的多重問題。 蔡副院長主導經續會，又是內閣少數擅長於策略思考與政策論述的政務官。若連如此優秀政務官，對於台、中經貿投資之衝擊台灣經濟永續發展，都只是看到風險管 控一個面向，那麼時下媒體所謂的「蘇修路線」，果真堪憂！。 台、 中經貿關係有兩個層面需要嚴密思考，其中過度集中投資中國衍生的政治經濟風險的確是一個迫切的重要層面，而蔡副院長也表示行政部門將深入檢討，以找出更好 的管理機制。不過，另一個同等重要的層面，則涉及台灣資源分配動態均衡的問題。蔡英文似乎並未將這第二個層面納入台、中經貿關係對策的思考架構內。 從長期來看，即便政府能有效管控投資中國的政經風險，台對中經貿投資政策的制訂，仍然必須置放在台灣資源分配動態均衡的策略架構下，以確保內部資源不致於被中國過度磁吸，進而造成台灣經濟「創新毀滅」(Creative Destruction)的循環過程陷入失衡。 因為在全球化與國際爭相擴大研發投資、強化技術競賽的情況下，台灣絕對需要具備足夠的創新能量，以使本身開發新產品(或製程)的成長速度得與其舊產品(或製程)遭淘汰或外移的速度，維持一定程度的動態均衡。否則，台灣在全球價值鏈(Value Chain)的位階將不升反降，導致對外貿易條件惡化，難以提昇技術創新帶動的經濟成長動能。 基 於這樣的認識，政府在研擬台對中經貿投資政策時，除了必須審慎地管理政經風險外，也必須同樣審慎地考量資源分配動態均衡的問題。因此，當前真正迫切需要 的，其實是研擬整套符合台灣當前發展階段的創新導向經濟競爭力策略。而台對中經貿投資政策並不是獨立的議題，它的運作必須定位在配合或服務建構台灣成為創 新導向經濟的策略目的。 民進黨執政六年來，台灣的資源一直是「走向中國，複製台灣」的動態失衡態勢。雖然台灣在全球技術專 利競賽非常的優異，但是顯然這些技術創新並未真正在台灣內部有效轉化成足以推動總體經濟成長的關鍵力量，這意謂台灣經濟創新毀滅的循環過程已經出了問題。 此次經續會在洋洋灑灑五百多項政策建議中隱現「蘇修路線」，並以「綠色加值島」為台灣願景，事實上已模糊了台灣經濟永續發展的策略主軸。
◎林環牆, 部落格專論，8-1-2006; 自由時報，8-9-2006
Tuesday, August 01, 2006
蘇修路線的盲點
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2 comments:
>>>若沉靜審視蔡副院長這段會後說明，似乎隱涵只要風險能獲有效管控，應該可以進一步開放投資中國。
She didn't say that. You did. You took a sentence out of her words and misinterpreted it.
You are exactly like the others out there, taking things out of context, twisting other people's words to satisfy the pursuit of your political agenda, without really considering whether your agenda is beneficial to Taiwan. Behind these fancy words that you use and the name of the university you hide behind, what you advocate is nothing more than the product of fear, hatred, and ignorance.
Do you think Taiwan will benefit by shutting her borders and imprison all those who invest on the other side of the strait? Do you think the Taiwanese companies will survive simply by staying in Taiwan? Do you think Taiwan should shut herself out of the market of the 1.3 billion?
Do you really think what you advocate is good for Taiwan?
Certainly, I said that, because I wrote the article. But that was to criticize the policy, not anyone personally. Again, it is more than welcome that you or Ms. Tsai Ing-wen herself to write against my views based on professionalism. Everything is challengeable and nothing is the only truth, at least to me.
Nothing from a series of my articles published in Chinese or English has any implications of fear, hatred, and ignorance, as your comments said.
Why don't you write a complete analysis and publish it somewhere? I will respond formally and professionally.
All my papers recommend a dynamic balance between releasing the past and creating the future. Read my papers more carefully with an open mind, and you will benefit.
I did not hide anywhere. I use my true name and my true affiliated university. It's you who hid in the dark place.
Thanks for your comments, though.
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